90. VAS disappoints, avoiding a crash, US tech forever?

Is the Aussie share market still worth it? Should a new investor wait for the next crash? And how much tech exposure is too much?

Dave and Hayden open the listener mailbag and tackle three questions that all circle the same problem: it's very easy to make long-term decisions based on what has worked lately.

In this episode we'll discuss:

💸 Whether broad Australian shares still make sense for long-term income, especially after a weaker dividend period had one listener questioning their strategy

💸 Why a high-yield Australian share ETF has beaten the broader Aussie market over the past five and ten years — and why that doesn't mean it will keep doing so

💸 Recency bias in action: the temptation to look at the last decade's winner and assume you've found the best investment for the next decade too

💸 Why comparing cash with shares over a single year doesn't tell you much, especially when shares have both an income and a growth component

💸 The hidden risks inside REITs: leverage, management decisions and concentration in areas like offices or retail can make a high yield less simple than it first appears

💸 Why "normal" share market returns can suddenly look disappointing after a decade of extraordinary US tech performance

💸 A question from an 18-year-old worried about an approaching market crash — and Dave's argument that a bad market early in your investing journey can actually help long-term accumulators

💸 Why nobody knows when the next crash is coming, and why spending years waiting for one can sometimes hurt more than the crash itself

💸 Hayden's way of thinking about US market risk: look past the headlines and consider what the biggest companies actually own, earn and do