CME vs. Kalshi. Is Washington Picking a Winner in Prediction Markets?

CME's Terry Duffy and Kalshi traded public insults over prediction markets. Ram, Austin, Chris, and Bitwise's Gordon Grant break down who's winning.

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CME chairman Terry Duffy and Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara traded barbed insults at the CFTC's first-ever innovation advisory committee meeting, with Duffy warning that prediction markets invite manipulation and Lopes Lara firing back that CME should learn about efficiency.

Austin Campbell, Ram Ahluwalia, and Chris Perkins are joined by Bitwise portfolio manager Gordon Grant to referee the fight, weighing whether the incumbent exchange or the upstart prediction market has the stronger claim as CFTC chair Mike Selig moves to bring platforms like Hyperliquid onshore.

They also cover Bitcoin pushing toward $80,000 as Scott Bessent's Treasury long-end buybacks jolt bond market volatility, stress signals building in the TIPS market, Gordon's pitch for parametric insurance as prediction markets' next frontier, and a mystery 20-cent open-weight AI model outscoring GPT and Claude at a fraction of the price.