Cross-Asset Volatility at the Lows, the AI CapEx Reckoning & the Latest Text For CLARITY

Could oil be the catalyst that wakes cross-asset volatility?

In this CF Benchmarks X Space, recorded on July 23, 2026, CF Benchmarks Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA (@gxselby), is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilkoczuck; Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA (@ThomasPerfumo); CF Benchmarks Head of Business Development Peter Stern (@sternpeter9); and special guest Craig Shapiro (@ces921), Senior Macro Strategist at NinjaTrader and author of The Aletheia Narrative.

The conversation captures markets at a genuine inflection point. With July options expiry behind us and dealer positioning near cyclical lows, the cross-asset volatility suppressed throughout the year may finally be reawakening.

Craig explains his “coiled spring” framework for record-low implied correlations and traces the potential sequence of a volatility shock—from oil to rates, credit and, ultimately, equities. The group also examines why the hyperscalers’ AI capital-expenditure boom is increasingly relying on external financing rather than free cash flow—and whether that shift is beginning to strain some of the world’s most profitable companies.

The discussion then turns to the CLARITY Act, including the Senate draft’s ethics provision and the compressed timeline ahead of the August recess, leaving its prospects for passage close to a coin flip.

Chapters:

00:00 – Introduction and Team Welcome

01:55 – Meet Craig Shapiro: Two Decades on the Buy Side

04:14 – Market Snapshot: Bitcoin, Oil and Rates

05:49 – Implied Correlations and the “Cold Spring” Effect

12:15 – Semiconductors vs. Software: Where the Dispersion Lies

15:38 – Hyperscalers Turn Cash-Flow Negative