The Fed's Double Bind, Bitcoin's Outperformance, Hyperliquid's Edge, and Bittensor’s Governance Shock

We unpack why oil remains the key macro lens for understanding markets as renewed Iran diplomacy, elevated crude prices, stronger labor data, and sticky inflation risks continue to shape the Fed backdrop and broader risk sentiment. We discuss why Bitcoin has remained relatively resilient in this environment and how we are thinking about the market in a headline-driven regime where tactical levels matter more than long-term conviction. We also break down why Strategy’s bitcoin purchases may still matter even if they look small in aggregated flow data, particularly through momentum, liquidity, and float absorption. Finally, we explore why Hyperliquid continues to strengthen its case as a weekend macro price discovery venue through oil and precious metals perps, and why Covenant’s exit from Bittensor has become a real near-term sentiment hit for TAO without necessarily invalidating the broader decentralized AI thesis.

Main sections

(00:41 - 07:43) The macro setup

(07:43 - 16:18) Bitcoin, oil, and market structure

(16:25 - 27:01) Strategy’s bitcoin buying & implications

(27:01 - 29:35) Hyperliquid’s competitive edge

(29:35 - 33:06) Bittensor and Covenant's exit

Speakers

David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: https://x.com/DavidDuong)

Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: https://x.com/colin_basco)

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