92. Is there an AI bubble? Thoughts On What Markets Are Really Pricing In. Mentioning Warren Buffet, Paul Volcker, Larry Page & More

This blog is the best explanation of AI intelligence increase I've seen: https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/

### Defining Market Bubbles

- Traditional definition: 20%+ share price decline with economic slowdown/recession

- Alternative perspective: hype/story not matching reality over time (dot-com example)

- Duncan’s view: share prices ahead of future expectations

- Share prices predict future revenue/profit

- Decline when reality falls short of predictions

### Historical Bubble Context

- Recent cycles analyzed:

- COVID (2020) - pandemic-led, quickly reversed with government intervention

- GFC (2008) - housing bubble, financial crisis, deeper impact

- Tech bubble (1999) - NASDAQ fell 80%, expectations vs reality mismatch