Will America Cut and Run?

Donald Trump has once again stepped back from a threatened major attack on Iran. So has America lost the Iran War? Or is Trump’s apparent hesitation part of a longer strategy to exhaust the Iranian regime?

Aimen and Thomas discuss:

Whether Iran has outmanoeuvred Trump despite America’s overwhelming military superiority

Aimen’s three possible futures for the war: US withdrawal, prolonged attrition or extreme escalation

Why an American retreat could unleash an even more destructive regional war

Israel, the Gulf states and Pakistan in a Middle East without American restraint

The revival of the US–Iran MoU and President Pezeshkian’s lack of authority over the IRGC

America’s possible ‘death by a thousand cuts’ strategy against Iran’s military and economy

Iran’s collapsing currency, soaring inflation and ability to withstand prolonged pressure

Trump’s highly personal style of government and the absence of a stable American war strategy

The limits of air power and America’s repeated failure to convert destruction into political victory

The danger of nuclear escalation if Iran races towards a bomb or misreads Trump’s restraint as weakness