Can Prediction Markets Handle Real Commercial Risk?

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Prediction Frontier analysed 4,427 Polymarket contracts. Only eight could absorb a $10,000 payout position within one cent of the midpoint.

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We analysed 4,427 Polymarket contracts and found that only eight of the 792 qualified markets could absorb a $10,000 payout position within one cent of the midpoint. Larger hedges still depend on brokers, bespoke contracts and professional liquidity providers.