Forward Guidance

← Forward Guidance3 Aug · 49 min

The AI Unwind And Warsh's Long-End Gamble | Weekly Roundup

The AI Unwind And Warsh's Long-End Gamble | Weekly Roundup3 Aug49 min

AI’s leverage-fueled boom is colliding with a Fed determined to tighten conditions without touching short-term rates.

This week, we dig into the Situational Awareness liquidation, the Fed meeting, and whether markets have reached a genuine growth inflection.

We unpack the ongoing AI unwind, Warsh’s long-end strategy, the Fed's credibility shock, and the administration’s market choreography. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:45 Situational Awareness Liquidation

04:49 Why Leverage Fueled The Boom

07:51 Price Drives The Narrative

12:42 Did Markets Misread Warsh?

21:08 Why The Long End Matters

25:42 Warsh’s Communication Problem

29:17 What Comes At Jackson Hole?