AI Pricing Has 4 Possible Futures, Which One Are You Building For with Steven Forth

Steven Forth is a principal at PatternMind and co-author of Pricing for the Agent Economy, with deep expertise in pricing strategy, scenario planning, and the emerging agent economy.

In this episode, he brings a different way of thinking about AI pricing: instead of trying to predict one future, build strategies that can survive several possible futures.

Mark challenges Steven throughout the conversation, particularly around value attribution and credit pricing, creating a fascinating debate about whether outcome-based pricing is truly scalable, whether credits will survive, and what AI buyers may demand next.

Why You Have to Check Out Today's Podcast:

Learn how scenario planning can help you prepare for multiple AI pricing futures instead of betting on one forecast. Discover how value attribution and credit adoption create four possible paths for AI pricing—and what each means for your business. Understand why credits, outcome-based pricing, and fungibility could reshape how buyers and vendors exchange value in the agent economy.

"Rather than thinking about, how are you going to predict what's going to happen? It's, what are the early indicators? What are the early warning system you can put in place?"

— Steven Forth

Topics Covered:

01:15 – Why Forecasting Isn't Enough for AI Pricing. Steven explains why traditional linear forecasts assume one future while scenario planning prepares for multiple possible futures—especially when major uncertainties could fundamentally change the market.

04:00 – The Critical Uncertainties You Need to Track. Learn why identifying uncertainties isn't enough—you need to watch for early evidence and warning signals showing which future is beginning to emerge.

05:30 – What COVID Taught Steven About Agile Scenario Planning. Steven shares how the pandemic exposed the limits of traditional scenario planning and led to a faster approach focused on cycling through critical uncertainties as conditions change.

08:00 – Why AI Makes Agile Scenario Planning More Important. With generative AI moving rapidly and no one knowing exactly how the market will evolve, Steven explains why businesses need to remain open to a wider range of possible futures.