Bayesian Epistemology Is "Bayes' Theorem Without the Data"

<p>Today's clip is from episode <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/bayesian-statistics-vs-epistemology-critical-rationalism-popper-vaden-masrani" target="_blank">160</a>, featuring Vaden Masrani. In this conversation, Vaden lays out a sharp critique of Bayesian epistemology - the roughly hundred-year-old philosophical tradition, popular in some Oxford-adjacent circles, that treats subjective probability estimates as legitimate even when there's no data behind them.<br /><br />Vaden's core objection: doing Bayes' theorem on numbers you made up in your head is like fitting a regression line to an empty scatter plot - the math looks rigorous, but there's nothing underneath it. He argues this "math-washing" can trick people into thinking a decision is well-informed simply because it's dressed up in probability language, when frequentists and data-driven Bayesians alike would say the same thing: no data, no model.<br /><br />Get the full discussion <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/bayesian-statistics-vs-epistemology-critical-rationalism-popper-vaden-masrani" target="_blank">here</a><br /><br />Support &amp; Resources<br />→ Support the show on <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.patreon.com/c/learnbayesstats" target="_blank">Patreon</a><br />→ <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/1011122" target="_blank">Bayesian Modeling Course</a> (first 2 lessons free): <br />Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://bababrinkman.com/" target="_blank">work!</a></p>