The Price of an Investment Boom

The Federal Reserve held rates again this week, but the more consequential story is the investment cycle now lifting the real cost of capital — and whether all that spending will pay off. This week's charts trace it from the Fed to the physical constraints that will decide the outcome:

Fed holds a fifth time, but on a divided vote

Real yields at a two-decade high — driven by growth, not inflation

July flash PMIs show a manufacturing-led upturn

G4 manufacturing orders have turned firmly higher

The equity–bond correlations that broke in 2022 have reverted

Baltic energy freight surges while dry bulk stays calm