ALMS Crashed 56% but Has $502M Cash and $40 Upside

Alumis ALMS stock analysis: 56% drop hides $1.7B potential — buy or sell?

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In this deep dive, we break down Alumis Inc (ALMS) and its upcoming Q4 2026 FDA NDA submission for envudeucitinib following a 56% stock price collapse. With over $502 million in cash funding operations into Q4 2027 and a probability-weighted price target of $15.93, the key question for investors is whether its $1.7 billion peak sales potential outweighs high clinical cash burn. Here’s everything you need to know before making a decision on ALMS.

🎯 SECTIONS:

- Executive Summary & TYK2 Pipeline Overview

- Envudeucitinib Phase 3 Psoriasis Efficacy vs. Competitors

- Phase 2b Lupus Trial Results & Biomarker Subgroup Potential

- Q2 2026 Financial Results, $502M Cash Balance & Burn Rate

- Commercial Partnership Strategy & Regulatory Timeline

- 5-Year Valuation Model: Base, Bull & Bear Scenarios

- Key Execution Risks, Dilution & Competition Analysis

- Technical Price Action Consolidation & Final Investment Thesis