Jason Miller, MSU | The Capacity Driven TL Cycle and the ROI of AI

<p>This week, Chris Caplice is joined by Dr. Jason Miller, Professor of Supply Chain Management at Michigan State University’s Eli Broad College of Business, for his fifth appearance on Freightvine.</p><p></p><p>Chris and Jason break down why they believe the current truckload cycle began in December 2025, why it took a few months to confirm the shift, and why this expansion looks different from past freight cycles.</p><p></p><p>In this conversation, they cover:</p><ul><li>Why this cycle appears to be supply-driven, not demand-driven</li><li>What spot and contract rate spreads can tell us about market shifts</li><li>How capacity exits, Class 8 orders, and routing guide failures are shaping the market</li><li>Whether the AI boom can deliver real ROI or if the market is getting ahead of itself</li><li>What Michigan’s logistics and supply chain work can tell us about manufacturing, food production, and trade</li></ul><p></p><p>If you’re trying to understand where truckload pricing, capacity, and freight demand may be headed next, this is a timely conversation with one of the industry’s sharpest data-driven voices.</p><p></p><p>For previous episodes and to subscribe to our newsletter, visit: <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="http://dat.com/podcast/freightvine" target="_blank">dat.com/podcast/freightvine</a></p><p></p><p>Chapters</p><ul><li>00:00 Introduction </li><li>02:55 Identifying the Current Truckload Cycle</li><li>04:16 Market Signals and Transition Points</li><li>05:53 Comparing Cycles: 2017-2018 vs. 2025</li><li>09:00 Supply vs. Demand Driven Cycles</li><li>12:15 Routing Guide Compliance and Market Dynamics</li><li>16:15 Spot vs. Contract Rates: Current Trends</li><li>20:38 Economic Factors Influencing Freight Rates</li><li>22:47 AI and Memory Chip Demand: Future Implications</li><li>26:10 The Future of AI and Profitability</li><li>27:23 Electricity Infrastructure and AI's Role</li><li>29:03 The Cost of AI and Model Maintenance</li><li>31:28 AI's Impact on Labor and Employment</li><li>34:04 AI in Academia and Content Creation</li><li>38:04 The Economics of AI and Cost Structures</li><li>45:33 Logistics and Supply Chain in Michigan</li><li>51:09 Freightvine Market Update</li></ul><p></p><p></p>