An Early Look at Midterm Elections

In Episode 79, Frank welcomes back his friend and colleague Chris Krueger, Head of Global Macro Research for TD Securities and an expert on Washington politics, to discuss the upcoming US Midterm elections in November. Before digging in on US politics, Frank and Chris work through some recent developments around the globe including the Iran Peace Deal, the Trump-Meloni dispute and Keir Starmer's resignation as Prime Minister of the UK. When the conversation switches to mid-terms, Chris educates our listeners on the math to control the House and Senate and suggests that the next leader of the Democratic Party is likely to emerge from state legislatures rather than chambers of government in Washington. Frank handicaps the Rubio-Vance sweepstakes for next Republican leader and believes that other horses will participate in the leadership race as well. The two finish up discussing the dispute over the opening of the Gordie Howe Bridge, IEEPA refunds and expectations for CUSMA negotiations.

This podcast was recorded on June 22, 2026

Chapter Headings

01:15 - The Iran Peace Deal

07:21 - Starmer Quits

15:40 - The Math for House and Senate

22:19 - Leading Candidates for Democrats

24:54 - Rubio vs Vance

28:04 - Dispute over Gordie Howe Bridge

32:04 - New US Tariffs Arrive as IEEPA Refunds Start

34:47 - Expectations for CUSMA