Doomberg Predicts Venezuela's Return Toward 4 Million Barrels a Day

Doomberg, the pseudonymous voice of the independent Doomberg publication and newsletter focused on energy, finance, and geopolitics, represents a team of entrepreneurs with deep professional experience in heavy industry, private equity, and the hard sciences.

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Recording Date 9-1-2026. In this episode, Doomberg joins me to break down what the oil market is really telling investors amid turmoil in the Middle East, diesel concerns, and shifting global energy flows. We start with crack spreads and why the difference between crude oil costs and the value of refined products is essential to understanding refinery profitability. Doomberg explains why oil futures can provide a higher-quality market signal than equities, why delivery and contract expiration enforce discipline in crude markets, and why the failure of oil to reach the predicted $150 to $200 range during the Iran conflict forced him to reassess his own expectations.

We then turn to Venezuela, where Doomberg says production has recovered to roughly 1.1 million barrels per day and argues the country could eventually move back toward the roughly 4 million barrels per day it once produced. I ask him about the potential role of Chevron, Exxon and other supermajors, the advantages of blending Venezuelan heavy crude with lighter Permian hydrocarbons, and his expectation that substantial outside capital could accelerate the country's energy revival. We also examine Greenland, Saudi Aramco, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, diesel exports, and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Doomberg's key message is that investors should pay attention to the price signals coming directly from sophisticated oil markets rather than assume geopolitical headlines dictate prices. With Brent trading in the $80s during the discussion, he argues enough oil is reaching the global market to prevent a sustained shortage and says $200 oil remains unlikely unless an extreme event, such as the destruction of major Saudi oil and gas infrastructure, dramatically changes the supply picture.

Key Insights In This Episode

✅ Crack spreads reveal refinery economics and whether the bottleneck is crude supply or refining capacity.

✅ Doomberg argues oil futures provide unusually valuable signals because contracts face delivery and expiration.

✅ $200 oil is unlikely in Doomberg's view without catastrophic disruption to Saudi oil and gas infrastructure.

✅ Venezuela once produced roughly 4 million barrels per day and was already back near 1.1 million by July.

✅ Doomberg expects major outside capital and eventually companies such as Chevron to pursue Venezuela's revival.

✅ America's SPR matters less domestically because the U.S. has become an energy superpower and net exporter.

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