Contingency of Structures: Triggers and the Social Geography of Revolutionary Episodes in Iran 2017–2022

This MENA Politics Seminar was delivered at the Middle East Centre on Thursday 7 May 2026 by Dr Ali Kadivar (Boston College) and chaired by Professor Neil Ketchley (St Antony’s College). What drives the uneven geographic spread of revolutionary episodes? While structural approaches emphasize

pre-existing fault lines, contingency approaches highlight emergent processes. We synthesize these

perspectives, arguing that specific triggers shape a revolutionary episode's social geography by activating certain

fault lines while leaving others dormant. Through a comparative analysis of three revolutionary episodes in Iran

(2017–2022), each with a distinct trigger, we demonstrate how different triggers shape patterns of contention.

Using event-history and spatial regression analysis of subnational protest data alongside socioeconomic and

political variables, we show that a fuel price hike activated grievances in oil-producing areas, while a repressive

event targeting a woman from an ethnic and religious minority mobilized protests in minority-populated districts.

Our findings illustrate how triggers structure revolutionary mobilization, offering broader insights into the

interaction between structural conditions and contingent events in contentious politics.

 

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