The AI Arms Race: Why Most Investors Are Getting It Wrong

Is AI a bubble? Tad Fallows and Sriram Gollapalli break down how to invest in AI in 2026 — starting with the warning Warren Buffett gave the tech elite at Sun Valley in July 1999: a transformative industry and a rewarding investment are not the same thing. Eighteen months later the dot-com crash proved him right, and his warning is being repeated today. Ten stocks now make up nearly 40 percent of the S&P 500, and $18 of AI infrastructure spending goes out for every dollar of AI software revenue. The greatest buildout in market history, or the most expensive echo of 1999?

This conversation started as a thread inside Long Angle: a member asking whether he'd missed the Anthropic trade. Tad and Sriram follow the AI money through the stack — natural gas and power stocks, data centers, NVIDIA and the revenue-recognition accounting behind chip profits, frontier models and where vendor lock-in lives — and what each of them is buying today. They close with how private investors reach pre-IPO deals like the Anthropic SPV, and the fee traps to check before you invest.

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