Market Focus: Hormuz disruptions tighten global oil markets as recovery risks persist

Strait of Hormuz disruptions are tightening global oil and LNG markets, with recovery expected to remain slow even if conflict eases. Ongoing security risks, damaged infrastructure, and constrained shipping capacity are limiting exports, while clearing waterways and restoring normal tanker flows could take months.

Recovery will vary across Gulf producers. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are better positioned due to stronger domestic supply chains, while Iraq and Kuwait face delays tied to reliance on imported equipment and foreign expertise. Global shortages of specialized energy components are expected to further extend timelines.

The result is a sustained global supply deficit, with inventories declining and limited response from non-OPEC+ producers, keeping market conditions tight well into 2026.