Paul Craven on Living With Uncertainty

What happens when someone who spends his life thinking about risk, decision-making and human behaviour is confronted with an uncertainty he simply can’t control?

Episode summary

My guest is Paul Craven, a behavioural scientist, former investment professional, magician and keynote speaker, and one of my favourite people to talk to. When we sat down to record this episode, I noticed that Paul’s voice sounded different.

His explanation — that he had recently been diagnosed with oral cancer — took our conversation in an unexpected and deeply personal direction.We explore what his experience has taught him about uncertainty, why he deliberately chose not to Google his diagnosis, and the difference between having information and having useful information.

From there, we explore luck and skill, decision and gratitude journals, relationships versus transactions, the dangers of binary thinking, and why sometimes the best thing you can do when you’re in a bad mood is go for a walk in the rain. It’s a conversation about behavioural science, but also about perspective, paying attention and what we discover about ourselves when life doesn’t go according to plan.

Key themes

Living with uncertainty and the psychological value of having a planWhy more information isn’t always better informationAI, search engines and our desire for certaintyNuance versus binary thinkingLuck, skill and decision journalsGratitude and paying attention to what mattersRelationships versus transactionsStorytelling, lived experience and different ways of seeing the worldChameleon Thinking and the value of changing perspectiveGuest Profile - Paul Craven

Paul is a behavioural scientist, keynote speaker and former investment professional who brings together insights from psychology, behavioural science, finance and magic to explore how people really think and make decisions.

Links

Paul Craven — speaker profile and booking enquiriesPaul Craven’s websiteIain McGilchristMartin ShawMark VernonPaul’s previous appearances on the Human Risk Podcast

Solo: Paul Craven on Magic, Money & The Mind

With Gerald Ashley: Gerald Ashley & Paul Craven on Statistics, Spreadsheets & Scam Artistsand Paul Craven & Gerald Ashley on Context, Consequences & Changeability