#405 Ted Oakley: Gold Still Cheap at $4,600, The Energy Move Could Be Bigger, & 3 Signs of a Stock Market Top

<p>Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors, returns to explain why he sold all his silver and much of his gold exposure in late 2025 and early 2026 — then bought it all back, and more, in mid-July. With gold near $4,600 he argues it&#39;s still roughly 18–20% below its January high and nowhere near expensive if you&#39;re thinking in terms of a one-and-a-half to two-year horizon and a $7,000–$8,000 objective. The driver, in his view, is a loss of faith in the dollar backed by a fiscal picture with no exit: within five years, entitlements plus a slice of defense will exceed total federal revenue. Oakley explains why he&#39;ll only own Treasuries inside twenty-four months, why investors stuck in 20- and 30-year bond funds have lost millions with no way out, and why energy may be the bigger opportunity than gold — underowned after years of fossil-fuel divestment, profitable at $70–80 oil, and paying dividends from 6% to 11%. He also lays out the three classic ingredients of a market top, all of which he says are now in place, and previews his forthcoming book <em>Asleep at the Wheel</em>, aimed at boomers who&#39;ve stopped rebalancing.</p><p><br></p><p><br></p><p>Thank you to our partners </p><p><strong>Augusta Precious Metals </strong>— To learn more, visit <a href="https://juliabuysgold.com/" target="_blank">https://juliabuysgold.com/</a> or text “Julia&quot; to 35052</p><p><strong>Monetary Metals</strong> - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/</p><p><br></p><p>Links:</p><p>Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/</p><p>YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors</p><p>X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors</p><p>Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168</p><p><br></p><p>Timestamps: </p><p>00:00 – Intro</p><p>01:04 – Gold/silver discussion </p><p>02:44 – &quot;Is it too late?&quot; Gold at $4,600</p><p>03:55 – The real case for hard assets: losing faith in the dollar</p><p>05:09 – $40 trillion in debt and Bessent&#39;s long-bond buybacks</p><p>07:38 – Why Oakley won&#39;t own anything past 24 months</p><p>10:16 – What gold is signaling — and why energy could move next</p><p>12:20 – The energy thesis: underowned, cheap, 6–11% dividends</p><p>15:17 – The psychology of buying and selling</p><p>19:04 – Why energy isn&#39;t a buy-and-hold — and the copper trade</p><p>22:08 – Commodities as the AI trade, and cracks in the semis</p><p>23:37 – The three ingredients of a market top are all here</p><p>26:00 – &quot;Aren&#39;t you missing out?&quot; Oakley&#39;s answer</p><p>29:03 – How the Fed ruined fifteen years of price discovery</p><p>31:56 – Half the industry has never seen a real bear market</p><p>35:11 – The boomers who won&#39;t rebalance</p><p>37:00 – Asleep at the Wheel</p><p>40:32 – Parting thoughts: learn to go against the grain</p>