#401 Jim Rickards: The Iran War, "Trump's on the Losing Side of That Bet," The Case for $10,000 Gold, and the Japanese Yen Carry Trade Unwind — The Most Important Financial Story in the World

<p>Jim Rickards returns for a wide-ranging macro conversation on a world where geopolitics and economics have fully merged. He lays out the US–Iran standoff as a global game of chicken — Trump betting Iran&#39;s economy breaks first, Iran betting the midterm elections break Trump first — and explains why he thinks Tehran holds the stronger hand, why regime change was always a fantasy, and how a handful of drones a week is enough to keep the Strait of Hormuz bottled up. From there he turns to gold: how he used Jim Rogers&#39; 50% drawdown rule and fractal scale invariance to call the bottom, why central bank buying puts a floor under the market, why gold works as a deflation hedge as well as an inflation hedge, and why he stands by his $10,000 target. He also dismantles the popular &quot;debasement trade&quot; narrative, explains what Kevin Warsh&#39;s less transparent, market-following Fed means for investors conditioned to expect a rescue, and walks through the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade — which he calls the most important story in the world right now, and the one most likely to make 2027 messy. The episode closes on the darker side of AI: increasingly sophisticated voice-cloned scams aimed at older Americans.</p><p><br></p><p>Thank you to our partners </p><p><strong>Augusta Precious Metals </strong>— To learn more, visit <a href="https://juliabuysgold.com/" target="_blank">https://juliabuysgold.com/</a> or text “Julia&quot; to 35052</p><p><strong>Monetary Metals</strong> - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/</p><p><br></p><p><br></p><p><strong>More about Rickards: </strong></p><p>Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy, and his newest book MoneyGPT: AI and the Threat to the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. </p><p><br></p><p><strong>Links:  </strong></p><p>http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ </p><p>https://x.com/RealJimRickards</p><p>Visit <a href="http://callfort.io/" target="_blank">CallFort.io </a> or download the app <a href="https://apps.apple.com/us/app/callfort/id6752949954" target="_blank">https://apps.apple.com/us/app/callfort/id6752949954</a></p><p><br></p><p><strong>Timestamps: </strong></p><p>0:00 – Intro: welcome back, Jim Rickards</p><p>1:04 – Geopolitics and economics have merged: chokepoints and economic warfare</p><p>3:30 – The US–Iran game of chicken: what each side is betting</p><p>6:13 – Regime change isn&#39;t happening — and why killing leaders backfired</p><p>10:42 – Lost credibility and the Iran–Oman deal the US wasn&#39;t part of</p><p>14:41 – The midterm clock, and how Iran keeps the Strait closed</p><p>17:23 – [Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals]</p><p>19:04 – Gold&#39;s drawdown: the Jim Rogers 50% rule and fractal math</p><p>24:04 – Why gold goes much higher — and the $10,000 call</p><p>25:03 – What&#39;s driving gold: central banks, deflation, flat mine supply</p><p>31:15 – Why the &quot;debasement trade&quot; narrative is wrong</p><p>33:00 – Inside the primary dealer world and the old Fed</p><p>35:00 – Kevin Warsh, killing the dot plot, and a whole new Fed</p><p>38:16 – [Sponsor: Monetary Metals]</p><p>40:03 – The Fed&#39;s only real job — and what Friedman got wrong</p><p>44:13 – The yen carry trade: the most important story in the world</p><p>48:55 – The petrodollar, Japan&#39;s Treasuries, and the Bessent bailout</p><p>51:43 – Why currency defenses always fail, and why 2027 gets messy</p><p>52:50 – AI, sophisticated scams, and the Callfor