EP 180: $500 Lumber? The Market Is Sending a Message

The lumber market is getting interesting again—and the signals aren’t exactly lining up.

Ashley, Gregg, and Matt break down a market where demand remains “punky,” western species flailing, studs are showing slight signs of life after deep counters, and lumber futures are trading at a steep discount to cash. The big question: Is November lumber really headed toward $500—or is the futures market getting too bearish?

Gregg lays out the technical case for why $500 is at least possible, while Matt sees real value developing at current levels and argues that some of the best buying opportunities may be showing up right now. Meanwhile, Ashley asks the question every trader should be asking: Where is the edge?

The guys dig into forward pricing, inventory strategy, hedging when the board is at a discount, Canadian tariffs, shrinking contract business, and why 2027 could bring more open-market buying—and potentially more volatility.

The takeaway? This probably isn’t the market to be a hero. Stay liquid, turn inventory, buy value, sell the overvalued stuff, and be ready when the market finally shows its hand.

1. Timeline

00:00 — Episode #180: What’s the market telling us?

01:37 — Housing demand remains “punky”

05:00 — Western species bounce and the buying starts

09:20 — Can lumber really rally into the fall?

11:45 — Is November futures getting too cheap?

14:25 — Forward lumber pricing and the opportunity for buyers