EP #29 - The Oil Crisis' Impact on March Trading Results & Beyond

Retail is holding… until it isn't.

March delivered modest growth on paper, but the underlying story tells a very different picture.

In this episode of The Retail Scoreboard Podcast, we break down the March data and unpack why the final weeks of the month saw a sharp shift in momentum across Australian retail.

What we cover:

• March performance: Like-for-like sales up just 1%, with unit growth (+0.6%) and transactions (+2%) doing the heavy lifting Discounting increased significantly (+4.1%), putting pressure on margins Average transaction value and units per transaction both declined

• The real story — the last 2 weeks: Significant declines across stores, outlets and concessions Online growth driven largely by heavy discounting Momentum dropped off sharply heading into month-end

• Channel breakdown: Outlets and standalone stores led early in the month Concessions and online remained soft overall Afterpay sales week underperformed vs last year

• What's driving it: Fuel prices rising sharply through March Interest rate increases mid-month Consumer confidence continuing to fall Cost-of-living pressure accelerating

• What happens next: More discounting and promotional activity Increased focus on cost cutting and productivity Tighter inventory management Potential store closures for underperforming locations

The key takeaway? This isn't a short-term dip. The next 4–6 weeks will be critical in shaping retail sentiment as we move into the new financial year.

Listen to the full episode for a deeper breakdown of the data and what it means for your business.