NVIDIA Is a Dead Man Walking? Here’s Why.

NVIDIA has become one of the great corporate success stories of the AI boom.

Its GPUs power much of the infrastructure behind today’s frontier AI models. Revenue has exploded. Profitability has exploded. Its market capitalization has reached almost incomprehensible levels.

And because NVIDIA sells the “shovels” during the AI gold rush, the conventional wisdom seems pretty straightforward:

Even if the AI bubble eventually bursts, NVIDIA wins.

After all, somebody still has to sell the picks and shovels.

I’m not convinced.

In fact, I think there is a scenario in which NVIDIA becomes one of the biggest casualties of the next phase of the AI revolution.

Not because its technology suddenly becomes bad.

But because the economics of AI could fundamentally change.

NVIDIA’s Moat Depends on One Big Assumption

The bull case for NVIDIA ultimately rests on a simple proposition:

AI has an essential dependency on NVIDIA GPUs.