Crypto Correction, Rising Yields, and Q3 Earnings Season

In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 8, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA, is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, for a wide-ranging discussion of macro, earnings and crypto market structure.

With the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.3%, its highest level since 2002, and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting pointing to another rate increase this year, the panel examines what higher yields mean for risk assets and bank balance sheets. Against that backdrop, expected Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth of nearly 29.5% brings corporate performance and AI capital spending into focus. The conversation then turns to September’s divergent altcoin returns, the SEC’s innovation exemption and the proposed accredited investor exam.

Chapters

00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome

01:16 – Market Check: Bitcoin Rejected at $87K as the 10-Year Yield Tops 5.3%

02:27 – On Our Screens: Retracement Levels, Moving Averages & Crude Oil

11:10 – Implied Rate Path: October Pause, December in Focus

12:59 – Labor Market: Cracks or Just a Lull?

15:04 – The Fed’s Breadth Problem: Healthcare Carries Job Growth

22:07 – The Disconnect: Yields at 2002 Levels, Equities Near Highs

23:56 – Why Real Yields Are Rising: Deficits & AI Hyperscaler Capital Needs

26:59 – Bond Losses & Bank Balance Sheets: Revisiting the SVB Playbook