The Bitcoin Bottom Explained

In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded September 24, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk are joined by Bitwise Europe's Head of Research André Dragosch and Research Analyst Max Shannon to unpack the two teams' joint report, "The Bitcoin Bottom Explained."

With the US 10-year yield above 5.1% and the Fed back in hiking mode, the panel first weighs whether the sovereign bond rout spills over into equities and crypto. The conversation then turns to the two independent frameworks, Bitwise's on-chain model and the CF Benchmarks market cycle engine, that both point to June 30 at $58,000 as the likely cycle low, before stress-testing the bear case and closing with the week ahead.

Chapters:

00:00 – Intro & Welcome: Bitwise Europe Joins the Space

02:29 – The Global Sovereign Bond Rout

07:26 – MOVE vs VIX: A Bond-Equity Disconnect

09:28 – Is the Fed Behind the Curve? The Shadow Rate Signal

12:07 – Crypto Check-In: ETF Flows & Key Levels

14:44 – CME Basis Expansion & the ETH/BTC Rotation

19:45 – The Bitcoin Bottom Explained

23:31 – Bitwise's On-Chain Model: Seller Exhaustion Meets Demand

26:01 – CFB's Market Cycle Engine: Regimes, Breadth & Thrust