ERIC Stock: Profit Fell, But the Comparison Is the Trap — Q3 2026

Ericsson (ERIC) Q3 2026 — ERIC rose 11.8% from the prior close to the October 15 close of $10.71.

Ericsson’s profit fell against last year’s disposal gain while underlying operations improved. Inventory and licensing timing decide how much of the progress becomes durable cash.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM) — Three-route fair-value anchor ~$9.7 vs ~$10.71 October 15 closing ADS price.

KEY METRICS:

- Revenue SEK 59.478bn, +5.8% reported / +7% organic

- Adjusted EBITA SEK 10.121bn; prior-year SEK 7.6bn disposal gain distorts comparison

- Net income SEK 5.797bn; FCF before M&A SEK 4.902bn

- Inventory cash use SEK 4.086bn; reported net cash SEK 60.687bn

- HOLD; three-route anchor $9.70; weighted scenario $9.55

What to watch: A 20% discount to the $9.70 anchor implies $7.76 with the thesis intact. Watch inventory days, FCF conversion, recurring IPR and Networks 49–51% Q4 adjusted gross margin.

Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/eric-q3-2026

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha