TSM Stock: Stronger Cash, But Is the Price Fair? — Q3 2026

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Q3 2026 — At 8:35 a.m. CDT on October 15, TSM traded at $411.27, down 4.36% from the previous close. This is an intraday snapshot, not the final session return.

TSMC delivered strong growth and cash conversion. A prior-quarter investment gain complicates the earnings comparison, while cash-flow and earnings valuations give very different answers.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM) — Three-route fair-value anchor ~$410 vs ~$411.2678 at 8:35 a.m. CDT on October 15 (intraday).

KEY METRICS:

- Q3 revenue US$46.72bn; NT$1,494.24bn, +50.9% YoY

- Operating margin 58.7%; attributable profit NT$763.06bn

- Operating cash NT$919.77bn; issuer free cash flow NT$476.56bn

- Q2 VIS gain NT$63.20bn complicates sequential profit comparison

- Q4 revenue guidance US$52.3–54.3bn

- HOLD; fair-value anchor $410; scenario weighted value $409.50

What to watch: A 25% margin of safety implies $307.50 with the thesis intact, or reassess on sustained cash margins above the model. Watch Q4 revenue $52.3–54.3bn and operating margin 56.5–58.5%.

Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/tsm-q3-2026