ASML Stock: Cash Surged, But How Much Can Repeat? — Q3 2026

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Q3 2026 — Reference price $1,717.76 is the October 13 pre-release Nasdaq close; no current earnings-day reaction is asserted.

ASML delivered a stronger operating quarter, but the surging cash inflow includes a large working-capital contribution and net income includes an investment gain. We separate recurring earnings from timing and show what the share price already assumes.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$1650.00 vs ~$1717.76 at the October 13 pre-release close.

KEY METRICS:

- Revenue €11,662.0M, up 55.2% year over year

- US GAAP operating income €5,172.8M, up 109.6%

- Gross margin 57.5%; prior Q3 guidance 55–57%

- Net income €4,960.4M includes €509.7M investment gain

- Operating cash flow €11,797.6M includes €7,009.0M changes in assets and liabilities

- FCF €11,350.4M after PP&E and intangible purchases

- Q4 sales guidance €14.2–15.2B; gross margin around 57%

- HOLD; fair value $1,650; reference $1,717.76; weighted scenario value $1,725