Negative headlines, resilient markets

Markets have spent much of 2026 confronting higher bond yields, tighter central bank policy and elevated oil prices. By historical standards, that should have been enough to derail growth. Instead, markets and the global economy have continued to surprise to the upside.

In this episode of Barclays Brief, host Ronnie Wexler is joined by Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Global Chairman of Research, to discuss the thinking behind Barclays Research's latest Global Outlook, Reluctantly Optimistic. They explore why the traditional relationship between higher rates and weaker growth appears to be weakening, and how a powerful AI investment cycle is helping sustain economic momentum.

The conversation also examines the strength of US corporate earnings, the resilience of the US consumer and early signs that AI-driven productivity gains are extending beyond the largest technology companies. While risks remain, particularly around sovereign debt and bond markets, Rajadhyaksha argues that the fundamental drivers supporting growth and risk assets remain firmly in place.

This episode was recorded on Monday 28 September at 5:00pm British Summer Time.

Listeners can hear more related to this topic:​

Barclays Brief #49: Pacing the Frontier: What’s next for AI?Barclays Brief #48: US Rates: Higher for longerThe Flip Side #87: Do debt managers or markets set the price of long bonds?

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:​

Global Outlook: Reluctantly optimistic

Important Content Disclosures

Important Non-Research Content Disclosures

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Views expressed are those of the speakers and may not reflect those of the firm. Any forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties.