Sam Stovall: S&P 8,050 Is Coming—But September Could Test the Bull Market First

Wall Street may be entering one of its most challenging seasonal stretches, but ⁠Sam Stovall⁠, Chief Investment Strategist at ⁠CFRA Research⁠, still sees significant upside ahead for stocks.

On this episode of ⁠The Money Path⁠, Stovall joins host ⁠Todd M. Schoenberger⁠ to explain why CFRA is targeting 8,050 on the S&P 500 by year-end and 8,650 over the next 12 months. CFRA's bullish outlook is supported by broad earnings momentum, historical market patterns and an AI infrastructure investment cycle the firm believes still has room to run.

But getting there may not be easy.

Stovall breaks down September's historically difficult record and explains why investors should respect market history without allowing fear to dictate their portfolios. His recent analysis shows September has been the S&P 500's weakest month since World War II, while midterm election years have historically brought particularly large drawdowns.

The conversation turns to the Federal Reserve, inflation and Treasury yields as Wall Street prepares for critical PPI and CPI reports. Stovall discusses what another Fed rate hike could mean for equities, why the speed and magnitude of tightening may matter more than a single move, and whether a 10-year Treasury yield approaching 5% could create another burst of market volatility.

Then there's AI. Stovall explains why he believes the AI investment cycle remains relatively early and discusses the earnings strength supporting technology, semiconductors and other areas of the market. CFRA continues to identify the AI infrastructure buildout as an important component of its broader market thesis.

Todd and Sam also follow the money into energy and materials, including why refining companies could offer a different opportunity than traditional upstream oil producers as higher energy prices reshape earnings expectations.

And while September may test investors' nerves, Stovall's historical work points to a much more constructive period later in the year: in midterm years, the fourth quarter has historically been strong, while the 12 months following October 31 of a midterm year have delivered particularly favorable historical results.

Can the S&P 500 reach 8,050? Could another Fed hike derail the rally? Is AI still early? And where does Sam Stovall see the strongest opportunities heading into the final stretch of 2026?

Watch ⁠The Money Path⁠ with Sam Stovall and Todd M. Schoenberger.

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