If You Don't Get Global Liquidity, You Don't Get The Everything Bubble | Michael Howell

<p>Mentor Sessions EP 103: Michael Howell on Global Liquidity, the Everything Bubble &amp; When Bitcoin Rallies</p><p><br></p><p>Global liquidity is still rising in absolute terms, but the momentum is cracking fast, and that shift is already bending bond markets, credit spreads, and Bitcoin. Michael Howell breaks down exactly what&#39;s moving underneath the surface.</p><p><br></p><p>In this episode you&#39;ll see why Howell calls Bitcoin a &quot;liquidity sponge,&quot; how the debt maturity wall forces old debt back into the system, and why roughly 80% of all financial market transactions are really just debt refinancing. You&#39;ll learn how to read the four indicators Howell watches before every crisis, why the euro system has no safe asset, how Japan quietly devalued its debt through a weaker yen, and why China is &quot;basically Japan ten years later&quot; buying gold for 23 straight months. You&#39;ll also hear his specific call: Bitcoin may struggle for three months, then do quite well into 2027 as Treasury QE monetizes government spending.</p><p><br></p><p>⏱️ Timestamps:</p><p>0:00 - Intro</p><p>1:06 - Is Global Liquidity Expanding Or Contracting?</p><p>2:33 - Momentum Indicator Signals Liquidity Rollover</p><p>3:25 - Why This Is a 5-6 Year Debt Refinancing Cycle</p><p>4:28 - The Debt Maturity Wall Explained</p><p>5:59 - Debt-To-Liquidity Ratio And Crisis Thresholds</p><p>7:20 - Where Liquidity Shifted: CapEx And AI Data Centers</p><p>8:54 - Treasury QE: The New Hidden Liquidity Conduit</p><p>12:54 - Fed September Hike And Liquidity Management</p><p>13:17 - Why 80% Of Lending Is Collateral Backed</p><p>14:12 - MOVE Index And Rising Bond Volatility Risk</p><p>15:42 - Bessent Buybacks Targeting Off-The-Run Treasuries</p><p>16:26 - Fed Managing Repo Spreads And Bank Reserves</p><p>17:30 - What The Repo Market Actually Is</p><p>20:05 - SOFR Spreads And The Danger Line</p><p>24:20 - What Really Drives The MOVE Index Higher</p><p>25:49 - Are We Heading Into A Financial Crisis?</p><p>26:53 - Two-Year Yields vs SOFR: Rates Rising</p><p>29:24 - Where Interest Rates Could Peak</p><p>33:25 - Bitcoin As A Liquidity Sponge: The Framework</p><p>34:17 - Howell&#39;s Medium-Term Bitcoin Bull Case</p><p>35:43 - Yield Curve Signals And Bitcoin Bull Market Timing</p><p>40:38 - The Eurodollar Market And Gilts</p><p>42:36 - France, Germany And The Oat-Bund Spread</p><p>43:29 - No Safe Asset In The Euro System</p><p>45:26 - Why The Eurozone May Not Hold Together</p><p>4