Strait of Hormuz: Causal Models for Rare Events | Alexander Denev S2E11 | CausalBanditsPodcast.com

Send us Fan Mail *How do you forecast an event that has never happened before?* How do you forecast an event that has never happened before? The recent closure and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are unique events. For events like these, traditional risk models lose their statistical basis: repetition. Alexander Denev returns to the podcast to show how causal models (Bayesian networks) let us reason about rare events despite this limitation. In this episode, we cover: - Why value-at-ris...