Commodities Could Explode 54% as Oil Surges 9.6% and Yields Break Out ~ Monday Market Moves

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Recording Date 9-11-2026. The S&P 500 slipped 0.8%, but its developing bull flag keeps my bias pointed higher, while the VIX jumped 9.2%. The bigger macro signal is coming from bonds, with the U.S. 10-year yield closing near 4.97% and the 20-year reaching 5.39%. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Commodity Index has broken out of a major cup-and-handle formation, producing potential measured targets from roughly 190 to 220, with the percentage-based projection implying a 54% move. Gold fell 1.5%, silver dropped 2.3%, and copper declined 2%, creating several critical technical levels to watch.

I also dig into where the next opportunities and risks may be forming across commodity equities. WTI oil exploded 9.6% after reaching roughly $104, while Brent gained 8.6% after approaching $110, although I expect both to cool next week. Uranium remains especially interesting, with long-term contracts at $96.50 per pound while spot trades $6.50 cheaper, and URNM plunged 8.2%, potentially opening lower entry points. I'm also watching GDX, SILJ, COPX, XLE, FCG and PICK, which includes Rio Tinto, BHP, Freeport-McMoRan and Glencore. Across these markets, the 200-day moving average remains one of my key reference points for finding attractive risk-reward setups.

Key Insights in this episode

✅ Bloomberg Commodity Index breaks out with a potential 54% measured move toward roughly 220.

✅ U.S. 10-year yields reach 4.97%, threatening their highest level in roughly 19 years.

✅ WTI oil surges 9.6% to roughly $104 before Steve turns bearish for next week.

✅ Gold drops 1.5%, with a breakdown potentially exposing more than 10% downside.