The Cyber Risk Discourse is Broken

I’ve had one too many discussions on the cyber risks of open models — where someone assumes that either banning open models happens in a silo (and bad actors will somehow actually be stopped) or that China is a threat and doesn’t care about AI safety — that I feel we’re going to end up making policy decisions that both limit American AI competitiveness and increases long-term cyber risk. I feel like we’re locked in on a path of lose-lose situation, unless people embrace nuance, trade-offs, and scary realities.

Much has been written about the views of various players in this debate, which I summarize as follows:

* Open weight models pose an untenable risk to society’s functionality, occupied by frontier lab leadership and the national security community in the U.S.

* Western voices saying open weight models are necessary for defense and banning them will make the world less safe, occupied by AI risk moderates to different extremes. I include myself in this bucket, along with Hugging Face’s perspective after the OpenAI incident, and others like Joshua Saxe.

* Chinese companies continuing to release open-weight models with strong cyber capabilities, who are making decisions based on the risk assessments of their society and government.

This list is also organized by volume or clarity of message in the Western AI ecosystem. The risk-focused discussions have been disproportionately visible, including pieces of work which I view as very detrimental to potential of engaging across assumed party lines on this issue. There’s also very little substantive engagement trying to understand how Chinese companies assess risk — rather, mostly arguments that border on ad hominem attacks like “Chinese labs don’t care about safety.”

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The delusions of the anti open-weight alliance

The most recent publication from the “open-weights are dangerous” crowd was the report by Anthropic on the risks of GLM-5.3 as an offensive cyber tool. The problem with this is not the technical research they did, which is largely reasonable, but the failure to engage on more cross cutting questions like: What happens if we ban open models due to cyber risks or why do Chinese companies deem these models safe to release?

These questions, which I’ll come back to, are the ones we need to answer to understand the ecosystem perspective on current AI risks. All policy actions happen in a multi-piece puzzle, where the shape