FICO Crashes, Higher Rates & the Case for Costco

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What do you do when a stock you own drops 26% in a single day? For long-term investors, moments like these can be the ultimate test of conviction.

In this episode of the Long Term Investing Podcast, Barry Schwartz, President and Chief Investment Officer at Baskin Wealth Management, and Ernest Wong, Head of Research and Portfolio Manager, break down the sudden plunge in Fair Isaac (FICO), what changed for the business, and why they’re resisting the urge to make a knee-jerk decision. They discuss how to determine whether a falling stock represents a broken investment thesis—or simply a new challenge for a strong business. They also look back at lessons from Netflix (NFLX), TFI International (TFII.TO) and Moody’s (MCO), where sharp selloffs didn’t necessarily tell investors what would happen to the businesses over the long term.

Barry and Ernest also tackle rising interest rates in Canada and the U.S., why chasing higher yields in U.S. fixed income can introduce unexpected currency risk for Canadian investors, and why they prefer keeping bond maturities relatively short.

Finally, they make the case for Costco (COST). From cheaper gas and growing membership benefits to e-commerce, delivery and new stores, Barry and Ernest explain why they believe Costco’s flywheel continues to strengthen—and why they think the company deserves its premium valuation.

Plus, why sometimes the hardest—and smartest—thing a long-term investor can do is nothing.

Timestamps

00:00 Intro

00:54 The three topics: FICO, interest rates, and Costco

02:48 FICO’s 26% drop: what happened?

03:41 Why investors shouldn’t react too quickly

04:34 Netflix and TFI: lessons from sharp selloffs