AI Boom or Bust? – #122

Are we in an AI bubble?

Steve reviews analysis on CapEx, AI revenues, OAI+ANT burn rates. AI revenue has to reach $trillions per annum within the next few years (an increase of > 10x; compare total global software revenue of $1.5T today), or else the current CapEx spend will turn out to be a huge misallocation.

Separately, even if total AI revenue reaches these levels, OAI and ANT could still be overvalued due to revenue/margin compression from competition with other US or Chinese labs.

Chapter Markers:

(00:00) - Conference Takeaways

(03:21) - AI Capability Leap

(07:36) - Both Things True

(08:46) - CapEx Debt Risks

(10:31) - Trillion Revenue Hurdle

(18:32) - Spend Plateau Signals

(31:45) - IPO and Bubble Fallout

–