Why Earnings Matter More Than the Noise

With the stock market hovering around all-time highs at the halfway point of the year, it’s easy to let short-term market noise, geopolitical tensions, or Fed anxiety dictate your strategy. But what truly drives long-term stock returns?

In this episode, Matt, Lee, and John take a data-driven step back to look at what the market actually cares about: corporate earnings. They break down the lockstep correlation between forward earnings growth and stock prices, the massive broadening out of the market (including the recent 21-22% surge in the Russell 2000), and why the historical divergence between small-cap and large-cap earnings is rapidly closing.

The guys also tackle the massive CapEx spending trends of tech hyperscalers, the recent performance of gold and Bitcoin, and why a truly diversified portfolio built for the long haul is your best defense against market volatility.

Topics Discussed:

➡️ Market Drivers vs. Noise: The long-term engine behind stock returns is corporate earnings growth, which historically moves lockstep with stock prices, whereas politics, Fed actions, and geopolitical events tend to drive short-term sentiment and volatility.

➡️ Market Broadening: The S&P 500's year-to-date gains have broadened out to the wider market, with the Magnificent 7 no longer acting as the primary drivers and smaller companies in the Russell 2000 outperforming.

➡️ Tech CapEx and Free Cash Flow: Major tech hyperscalers are heavily spending their free cash flow on massive capital expenditures (CapEx) for infrastructure and AI, leading the market to re-rate their near-term valuation multiples.

➡️ Geopolitical Resiliency: Despite ongoing conflicts like the war involving Iran and friction in the Strait of Hormuz, historical data shows the stock market typically adjusts to long-standing geopolitical tensions over time as global infrastructure adapts.

➡️ Asset Class Shifts: Safe-haven and alternative assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin have recently experienced sharp sell-offs, contrasting with the stock market sitting near all-time highs.

➡️ Small-Cap Earnings Recovery: Small-cap corporate earnings have staged a dramatic recovery since late 2025/early 2026, closing the significant performance divergence that opened up against large-caps starting in 2022.

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👍 Like & 💬 We look at the data, not the drama. Do you think the market has officially tuned out the geopolitical noise, or are we due for a reality check in the second hal