Talking With G. Elliott Morris About the Midterms

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TRANSCRIPT: Paul Krugman in Conversation with G. Elliott Morris

(recorded 8/6/26)

Paul Krugman: I am returning for another of multiple conversations with G. Elliott Morris, whom I find the most informative polling and political data analyst out there. And for a couple of reasons: We just had the primary in Michigan, we have a lot of numbers, and the Strength in Numbers midterm model is up. So we have our first reads on best estimates of what’s going to happen. So there’s a lot I’d like to talk about.

G. Elliott Morris: Hey, Paul. Yeah, let’s get real wonky on the forecasting. Good to be back.

Krugman: Yeah, let’s start with the model. You have a first forecast, which is pretty encouraging for Democrats. But why don’t we talk about what the forecast says and then what might be issues to raise around it?

Morris: Sure. The forecast, which people can find at fiftyplusone.news—which is sort of a sister publication to Strength in Numbers that I run with a couple of friends—is just a team effort, so we kind of have a different play sport than just a solo podcast. That forecast, as of recording (Thursday afternoon), says the Democrats have an 87 out of 100 chance to win control of the House. They need 218 seats; they have 215 right now, so it’s a pretty easy get. I can explain why. And that the Democrats have a 54 out of 100 chance to win control of the Senate. So pure toss-up territory there for the Senate. There, they need to win 51 seats; they currently have 47.

Krugman: Now this is, of course, a map on the House that includes the extreme gerrymandering, all of the attempts to tilt it. And so you’re saying that despite that, the Democrats don’t have a lock, obviously. But I assume that without the gerrymandering, it would be even higher gains on the House.

Morris: Yeah. I mean, without the gerrymandering, I would take close to 95 or 96% odds for them to take it. Our best guess is that the gerrymandering cost Democrats 5 or 6 seats in the House. So that combines a pretty good amount of gerrymandering in Texas—that cost them probably three seats there—and then 3 to 4 seats across the other Southern states. Tennessee is one; Louisiana, 1 or 2; Alabama, probably one there. Florida as well—a pretty big hit in Florida. And then, of course, it takes into account some gerrymandering back in the Democrats’ favor in California, and one lucky seat that they got a lucky break with in Utah with some court-mandated redistricting there. Democrats will take a seat from Utah for sure. So, yeah, I think that they’ll get 231 seats on average today, but that number should be close to 237 without the mid-decade cheating.

Krugman: You’d said that they needed something like a four percentage point advantage in the popular vote.

Morris: Yeah, we’ll be writing more about that. I think the number in the forecast now is close to three and a half. It’s a little more optimistic taking into account stuff like how candidate recruitment was really good for Democrats in some places. Their polling numbers and fundraising are looking really good in those competitive districts. So, you know, if the historical patterns are correct, Democrats gain some ground in the generic ballot, and the predictors are as reliable as they typically are in midterms, then it should be a pretty easy victory for them. We would predict a pretty easy, big House majority for them with 230 seats.