Are Data Centers Going to Flip Ohio Blue? Checking in on the Midterms One Month Out (with Kirk Bado)

A Democratic outside group called Defend the Vote has launched a $7 million statewide television campaign attacking Senator John Husted’s ties to data-center developers and making him the face of AI data centers in Ohio. Husted knows he’s vulnerable on this. That’s why he attached his name to the Ratepayer Protection Act, which was designed to prevent regular citizens from paying higher electricity costs because of data centers. The bill passed the House but failed procedurally in the Senate, 57–43, because it needed 60 votes.

Most people don’t really know why data centers are supposed to be bad beyond the fact that big tech wants them and nobody knows what that means for their community. There’s plenty of misinformation, but the issue has still become a galvanizing cross-party force. The strongest Democratic argument is to frame data centers as corruption — payback, kickbacks, graft, and politicians acting as supplicants to big tech. Otherwise, it’s mostly a NIMBY concern. But if that concern reaches the exurbs, Democrats will gladly take those votes because they don’t normally get them.

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Ohio used to be one of the swingiest swing states before moving firmly into the Republican column during the Trump era. Now it’s close again. One poll has Sherrod Brown leading Husted by nearly four points, another has him up eight, another has him up 2.6, and the latest has him ahead by one. The race appears to be narrowing, but this is still a state Trump won comfortably in 2024 and one where nobody spent much time, money, or effort trying to elect Kamala Harris.

Democrats may have an even better opportunity in the governor’s race. Amy Acton leads Vivek Ramaswamy by six points in one poll and nine in another, and she’s above 50 percent in both. Another poll has Ramaswamy ahead by one, so this isn’t universal, but we may be seeing the degradation of the Trump coalition — voters who believed in Trump’s brand of populism and now feel disillusioned or betrayed. Acton is also the more charismatic candidate. Ramaswamy is compelling when he’s on the attack, but when he isn’t tearing somebody down, he’s odd. He’s in this position because Trump was popular in Ohio. Now he may have to eat a gigantic sandwich full of excrement.

Democrats also appear to be addressing their money problem in the House. Their two main outside groups rais