April Perspectives: War, Oil Prices, and Staying Grounded as an Investor

In this episode of Money & Meaning, Jeff Bernier examines how geopolitical conflict influences oil and gasoline prices, drawing on perspectives from economist John Cochrane and JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest. He explains how war creates supply shocks, why energy markets react quickly, and how those effects ripple through inflation and the broader economy. Jeff also outlines why the U.S. is less vulnerable today and what investors should focus on when uncertainty rises.

Topics covered:

How war creates supply shocks in global oil markets

Risk premiums, sanctions, and policy responses affecting energy prices

The structure and limitations of global energy supply

Why fossil fuels still dominate and renewable transition is slow

How rising oil prices impact inflation and the broader economy

The U.S. energy shift due to shale production and reduced import reliance

Historical policy mistakes during energy crises

Why price controls and subsidies can worsen outcomes

The cyclical nature of energy shocks and market adjustment over time

Investor perspective: diversification and avoiding macro speculation