Budget week is here. Simple narratives versus complex reality. And some method acting.

In this episode, Jim breaks down the Irish Department of Finance white paper and says the public finances still look strong, with a forecast general government surplus of 6.9 billion euro this year and 13.5 billion euro in 2027.The conversation focuses on corporation tax, which is forecast at 34.1 billion euro this year and 39 billion euro next year, but below an earlier projection of 35.3 billion euro.Jim stresses that October and November are still crucial months for corporation tax, so the apparent undershoot may not tell the full story yet.Chris raises the warning - yet again - that Ireland’s corporation tax base is becoming dangerously concentrated, with a small number of multinational companies accounting for a huge share of receipts.Jim notes that income tax, corporation tax, and VAT make up 89.9% of total tax take, showing how much the budget depends on a very small number of revenue streams.The discussion turns to the government’s likely 8.5 billion euro budget package, and the political impossibility of satisfying workers, businesses, unions, students, welfare recipients, and public service groups at once.Chris argues for a long-term strategy of explaining fiscal reality to the public, especially the danger of using temporary tax revenues for permanent spending.Jim pushes back, saying political reality makes that kind of strategy hard to deliver, especially under pressure from industrial action, election incentives, and short-term budget politics.We move to housing, using Spain’s snap election and housing protests to show that housing affordability is a global issue, not a uniquely Irish or British one.The episode includes a broader reflection on how people and politicians handle complexity, whether on immigration, Israel-Palestine, or fiscal policy, and how often narratives overpower data. And extra holes in belts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.