Washington’s Missile Shortage, With Michael Horowitz

This episode unpacks reporting that U.S. munitions stockpiles are dangerously low and lays out the consequences of the shortage both for Washington’s ongoing war with Iran, and for its deterrence of adversaries.

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:

Michael C. Horowitz, Senior Fellow for Technology and Innovation and Director of the Defense and National Security Program, CFR

We Discuss:

Whether news reports of a serious depletion of U.S. high-tech weapons stocks are accurate, and how far inventories have been drawn down.

The distinction between defensive interceptors, such as Patriot and THAAD, and offensive standoff weapons, such as Tomahawks and ATACMS, and how long each takes to produce.

How the roots of the munitions crisis trace back to decisions in the 1990s—including the "Last Supper" defense industry consolidation—that prioritized quality over quantity.

Why President Donald Trump's argument that the shortage stems from Biden-era weapons transfers to Ukraine misses deeper structural causes.

How chokepoints—from Chinese rare-earth dominance to consolidated tier-two and tier-three suppliers—make ramping up production slow and costly.

Why the Pentagon has been slow to shift its acquisition strategy despite nearly a decade of warnings about renewed great power competition, and how "not invented here" attitudes compound the problem.