Rent Controls Backfired — And Landlords Changed Their Strategy

<p>Is Scotland heading for a property crash—or does the country’s chronic shortage of homes make that unlikely?</p><p><br></p><p>Dr. John Boyle, Director of Research &amp; Strategy at Rettie, joins Nick and Steven to examine the data behind Scotland’s housing emergency, house prices, rental growth and the future of the private rented sector.</p><p><br></p><p>From Aberdeen’s dramatic fall and the 18-year property cycle to landlord exits, rent controls, build-to-rent and student accommodation, Dr. John explains what the latest figures reveal—and why some commonly quoted property statistics can be misleading.</p><p><br></p><p>EPISODE HIGHLIGHTS</p><p>• What Scotland’s housing emergency actually means and why homelessness and temporary accommodation are increasing</p><p>• Why housing costs of approximately 25%–30% of gross income are generally considered affordable</p><p>• How annual housebuilding has fallen from around 25,000 homes before the financial crash to fewer than 20,000</p><p>• Why a new social home can now cost approximately £250,000–£300,000</p><p>• Why Scotland’s 2026 house-price growth forecast was revised from 3.5% to around 0%</p><p>• Why the Scottish market continues to average approximately 100,000 property transactions each year</p><p>• Why Dr. John does not believe the 18-year property cycle will produce a house-price crash in 2026</p><p>• Why a collapse in transactions can be more damaging to the property industry than falling prices</p><p>• How Aberdeen went from having higher average prices than Edinburgh to lower prices than Dundee</p><p>• Why Aberdeen prices remain down while property transactions are beginning to recover</p><p>• The risks of using short-term house-price figures to judge smaller towns and local markets</p><p>• Why landlord registration figures do not provide a reliable picture of landlords leaving the sector</p><p>• Why Dr. John describes the landlord exodus as a “trickle rather than a flood”</p><p>• How rent controls encouraged landlords to raise rents to market value between tenancies</p><p>• Why experienced landlords are now more likely to review and increase rents every year</p><p>• How the 8% Additional Dwelling Supplement affects new landlords while producing record tax revenue</p><p>• Why rent controls caused institutional build-to-rent investment in Scotland to stall</p><p>• How construction costs rising faster than rents have created a viability problem for build-to-rent</p><p>• Why purpose-built student accommodation can be more financially viable than standard rental developments</p><p>• Whether Glasgow could eventually face an oversupply of student accommodation</p><p>• How co-living developments could provide another housing option for young professionals</p><p><br></p><p>CHAPTERS</p><p>00:00 - Meet Dr. John Boyle</p><p>01:08 - Scotland’s housing emergency explained</p><p>04:04 - Why Scotland is not building enough homes</p><p>07:08 - The rising cost of social housing</p><p>10:55 - Scotland’s property-market outlook</p><p>14:32 - Will the 18-year property cycle cause a crash?</p><p>18:25 - What could trigger the next property crash?</p><p>21:39 - What happened to Aberdeen’s property market?</p><p>25:31 - Finding growth areas and interpreting property data</p><p>30:28 - Are landlords really leaving Scotland?</p><p>35:23 - How the 8% ADS is affecting investors</p><p>37:47 - Why rent controls caused rents to rise</p><p>40:11 - The future of rent-control zones</p><p>44:57 - Build-to-rent and institutional investment</p><p>53:03 - Why build-to-rent schemes are struggling</p><p>56:47 - Is Glasgow building too much student accommodation?</p><p>59:49 - Could co-living help address the housing shortage?</p><p>01:00:52 - Where to connect with Dr. John</p><p><br></p><p>CONNECT WITH DR. JOHN</p><p>Dr. John Boyle MRICS — Director of Research &amp; Strategy at Rettie &amp; Co</p><p>Website: https://www.rettie.co.uk/</p><p><br></p><p>NETWORKING EVENTS</p><p>First Wednesday of every month</p>