Rates Keep Climbing. Stocks Refuse to Break. What If They're Saying the Same Thing?

<p>This week on the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down key investing lessons from recent conversations with Andy Constan, Liz Ann Sonders and Bob Robotti.</p><p>They examine why rising long-term interest rates can coexist with a strong stock market, how rolling recessions and the shift from labor income to corporate profits are shaping the economy, why AI&#39;s biggest beneficiaries may be in energy and old-economy materials, and whether the bond market can really lose control of long-term yields.</p><p>Topics covered:</p><ul><li><p>Why higher long-term interest rates can be consistent with stronger economic growth and rising stock prices</p></li><li><p>How productivity growth, Treasury issuance and corporate bond supply can push real yields higher</p></li><li><p>Why the post-pandemic economy has experienced rolling sector recessions instead of a traditional synchronized business cycle</p></li><li><p>How stock market optimism can coexist with pessimism about unemployment, wages and the broader economy</p></li><li><p>Why labor compensation has fallen as a share of GDP while corporate profits have increased</p></li><li><p>What the labor-versus-capital shift may mean for inflation, investor sentiment and future policy</p></li><li><p>Why the AI capital spending boom creates demand for cement, aluminum, copper, natural gas and other physical inputs</p></li><li><p>How low-cost North American natural gas could support reindustrialization and give the U.S. a structural energy advantage</p></li><li><p>Why renewables and electrification still depend on traditional energy, commodities and industrial materials</p></li><li><p>How decades of underinvestment in energy and materials could create a long-duration capital cycle for value investors</p></li><li><p>Why deep natural demand for Treasuries makes a disorderly loss of control over the long end of the yield curve less likely</p></li></ul><p>Timestamps:</p><p>02:15 Why rising rates and record-high stocks can coexist07:30 Rolling recessions and why the economy isn&#39;t moving in sync11:57 Labor vs. capital and the rise in corporate profit share17:39 Why the biggest AI beneficiaries may be cement, copper and natural gas25:26 Could the bond market really lose control of the long end?30:22 Where to find episode notes, transcripts and more</p><p>Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:</p><p><a href="https://excessreturns.co/" target="_blank" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer">https://excessreturns.co</a></p><p>No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.</p><p><br></p>