The Market Split In Half: The Numbers Don't Lie | EP 55

<p>The September 1 VREF value revision is live—and the numbers tell a very different story than the broad “strong market” or “weak market” headlines.</p><p></p><p>Business jet transaction volume is down nearly <b>19% year to date</b>, essentially returning to 2020 COVID-era levels.</p><p>But prices didn’t simply fall with volume.</p><p></p><p>They <b>split.</b></p><p></p><p>Across 658 business jet model years revised by VREF:</p><p></p><p><b>421 moved down.<br />230 moved up.<br />7 stayed flat.</b></p><p></p><p>And the dividing line isn’t simply light, midsize, or heavy.</p><p>It’s increasingly about <b>which generation of aircraft you own.</b></p><h3>In this episode:</h3><ul><li>Why business jet transaction volume has round-tripped to roughly COVID-era levels</li><li>Light jet volume down approximately <b>18%</b>, midsize down <b>25.5%</b>, and heavy down <b>13%</b></li><li>Why Jason’s 2026 sequence—<b>volume first, days on market second, price last</b>—has now played out</li><li>How legacy midsize values fell roughly <b>5.1%</b>, with <b>122 out of 122 model years moving lower</b></li><li>Why current-production super mids moved the opposite direction, rising about <b>4.1%</b></li><li>How current-production large-cabin flagships gained nearly <b>7%</b> while prior-generation large-cabin aircraft declined</li><li>Why the market is effectively <b>repricing obsolescence</b></li><li>How the “age penalty” is shrinking for some large-cabin aircraft while growing for older light and legacy midsize jets</li><li>Why a 15-year-old Global can appreciate while a similarly aged Citation or Hawker loses value</li><li>How two aircraft both labeled “midsize” can be moving almost <b>nine percentage points apart</b></li><li>Why broad weight-class averages can describe an airplane that doesn’t actually exist</li><li>What rising days on market and weaker transaction volume reveal about the buyer-seller standoff</li><li>Why midsize is becoming the <b>canary in business aviation’s coal mine</b></li><li>How fractional ownership, charter growth, financing sensitivity, and corporate caution may be permanently removing some buyers from whole-aircraft ownership</li><li>What the September revision means for sellers, buyers, lenders, insurers, and fleet planners</li></ul><p></p><p>For sellers of legacy aircraft, the conversation has changed. Buyers are no longer negotiating only against opinion—the published values are beginning to move to their side of the table.</p><p></p><p>At the top of the market, the opposite is happening. OEM backlogs and limited availability are pushing buyers toward current-production and late-model aircraft—and they’re paying for the privilege.</p><p></p><p>That means the old question— <b>“How’s the market?”</b>—is becoming almost useless.</p><p></p><p>The better question is:</p><p></p><p><b>“What is happening to my model, my generation, and my model year?”</b></p><p></p><p>Because as of September 1, there is no single aircraft market.</p><p></p><p>There are winners.</p><p>There are losers.</p><p>And the gap between them is getting wider.</p><p></p><p>For the latest aircraft values, historical trends, operating costs, fleet data, and transaction-based market intelligence, visit <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="http://VREF.com" target="_blank"><b>VREF.com</b></a>.</p><p></p><p><b>The market doesn’t care what you paid. It only cares what it’s worth.</b></p><p></p><p>And as of September 1, it changed its mind about a lot of airplanes.</p><p></p><p>Fly safe. Stay smart.</p>