Alberta separatists think they’ll win. Polls project a loss

Separatists think they’ll win a vote they’re poised to lose by a wide margin, according to an exclusive new poll. With a little more than five weeks to go before Alberta’s fall referendum, host Kathleen Petty explains how the heck we got here and where we’re headed next.

David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, does a deep dive into Alberta public opinion. His numbers say if the referendum was held today, Albertans would vote decisively to remain. Motivations for the other side aren’t clearcut. Do they actually want to leave? How many just want to send Ottawa a message? Danielle Smith says she wants to have this vote and move on, but can we?

University of Calgary political scientist Lisa Young has also been tracking the rise of separatist sentiment and western alienation in Alberta since it flared up following the 2019 re-election of Justin Trudeau. She helps analyze the data, and questions whether polls might be systematically under-estimating separatist support.

Background listening:

Here’s a link to the episode we mentioned: “Is a trade war good for separatists?” — we interview one Alberta separatist leader, Keith Wilson, on why not everyone voting Option 2 is looking for full independence.

https://link.mgln.ai/P987Bo

Host: Kathleen PettyGuests: David Coletto, Lisa YoungProducers: Emily Senger, Emily Williams, Diane Yanko, Josh Pagé