Ep. 190: Graham Fletcher on managing China

In this episode, Darren speaks with Graham Fletcher, who recently retired after almost four decades in the Australian public service, much of it spent working on China. Fletcher served four postings in Beijing, culminating in his term as Australian Ambassador to China from 2019 to 2023 — covering COVID-19, the deepest downturn in bilateral relations for decades, China’s campaign of economic coercion, and the beginnings of stabilisation.

The conversation builds from Fletcher’s new Lowy Institute Analysis, Australia and China: Embracing while sparring, which describes the current bilateral relationship as essentially “good enough”: functional and mutually beneficial, but bounded by enduring differences in strategic interests and values.

Darren asks what “good enough” means as a long-term objective, and what a functioning relationship actually enables Australia to achieve. They revisit the breakdown in relations after 2017, including what diplomacy looked like during the deep freeze, the much-discussed “14 grievances”, and whether the 2022 election was truly the circuit-breaker that allowed both sides to move on.

The discussion also explores how Australia should decide when to criticise China publicly; whether managing Beijing successfully enhances Australia’s credibility elsewhere in the region; why China so often interprets Australian policy through the prism of the United States; and how worsening US–China rivalry could eventually force Canberra to resist demands from either side.

Finally, Fletcher reflects on Kevin Rudd’s argument that ideology is upstream of Chinese policy, the importance of non-government links in giving the relationship substance and resilience, and what Australia needs to maintain deep China capability for the future.

Australia in the World is written, hosted and produced by Darren Lim, with research and audio editing by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

Graham Fletcher, Australia and China: Embracing while sparring, Lowy Institute, August 2026. Lowy Institute Analysis

Kevin Rudd, The Evolution of Chinese Economic Strategy Under Xi Jinping, 2026 China in the World Annual Lecture, ANU, August: https://mrkrudd.substack.com/p/the-evolution-of-chinese-economic