FIZZ Stock: Pricing Held Sales. Can Profit Recover? — Q1 FY2027

National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) Q1 FY2027 — September 10 regular close: $30.91, before the filing. No verified executed post-print reaction price.

Pricing holds sales as case volume falls and aluminum squeezes profit. We test the recovery against cash quality, concentrated control and three valuation routes.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$28.50 vs ~$30.91 today.

KEY METRICS:

- Revenue $330.662M; price/case +7.1%, volume −6.4%

- Gross margin 35.0% vs 38.0%; aluminum estimated 600bps pressure within net 300bps decline

- Operating profit $58.480M; net income $47.004M; diluted EPS $0.50

- CFO $64.850M and FCF $61.779M include working-capital and tax timing

- Cash $107.098M; no funded borrowing; 94M gross share modeling assumption

- Cash added to value $52.581M after $50M reserve and $4.517M existing tax payable

- DCF $25.62 / earnings $31.47 / revenue $30.39; 50/30/20 blend rounds to $28.50

- Bear/base/bull $20/$28.50/$43; 30/50/20 probabilities give $28.85