Bitcoin Models Are Wrong… Here’s the Better Way

<p>In this episode, Matthew sits down with Plan C for a deep dive into the evolution of Bitcoin power law modeling and why many commonly used assumptions may be flawed. The conversation centers on a critical distinction between calendar time vs protocol time, showing how Bitcoin’s early block production delays still distort traditional models today. </p><p><br></p><p>The discussion expands into quantile regression vs OLS, where Plan C explains why Bitcoin’s skewed data makes median-based modeling more reliable than averages. He also introduces a newer concept around data weighting, suggesting that current models may overemphasize recent price action due to density bias, leading to unstable projections.</p><p><br></p><p>One of the most impactful takeaways is how small modeling changes can lead to massive differences over time. Plan C demonstrates that long-term fair value projections could differ by as much as 50% depending on the methodology used, challenging widely accepted Bitcoin price expectations. Overall, this conversation reframes how serious analysts should approach Bitcoin’s long-term valuation.</p><p><br></p><p>Follow Plan C on X: @TheRealPlanC</p><p><br></p><p>Crypto Voices: Episode 198</p><p>Chapters:</p><p>00:00:00 - Refining Bitcoin Power Law Models</p><p>00:03:42 - Calendar Time vs Protocol Time in Bitcoin</p><p>00:06:18 - Calendar Time vs Protocol Time Regression</p><p>00:10:45 - Comparing Bitcoin Start Dates and Projections</p><p>00:12:56 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Analysis</p><p>00:25:44 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Analysis</p><p>00:35:15 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Analysis</p><p>00:38:55 - Quantile Regression Superior to OLS for Bitcoin</p><p>00:42:04 - Measuring Self-Similarity: Weighting and Time Scales</p><p>00:44:15 - Log-Time Weighting for Stable Power Law Regression</p><p>00:48:48 - Bitcoin&#39;s Scale Invariant Power Law Properties</p><p>00:52:34 - Comparing Regression Methods and Stability</p><p>00:56:18 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Differences</p><p>00:58:14 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Impact</p><p>01:00:44 - Decay Functions and Bitcoin Supply Modeling</p><p>01:04:19 - Building a Mathematical Model for Price Distribution</p><p>01:09:08 - Decay Functions vs Linear Quantile Regression</p><p><br></p><p>Hosts: Matthew Mezinskis,</p><p>Music: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/</p><p><br></p><p>Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/</p><p><br></p><p>Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.com</p><p><br></p><p>Podcast &amp; videos</p><p>Bitcoin, privacy, crypto, economics &amp; liberty</p><p><br></p><p>Thanks for watching!</p>